Speculation over the possibility of Max Verstappen leaving Red Bull has been a near constant in the Formula 1 paddock for the last couple of years, but the story has taken a new twist over the last week with McLaren emerging as his most likely destination.

The four-time world champion is contracted to Red Bull until the end of 2028 but is understood to have an exit clause in his deal that would allow him to join another team in 2027 should he be outside the top two positions in the Drivers' Championship at the start of this season's summer break in August.

With three races remaining before the summer break, Verstappen is seventh in the standings, 58 points behind second-placed George Russell, who trails his Mercedes team-mate Kimi Antonelli by 40 points.

Given there were earlier exit clauses in his contract that have been and gone, there was speculation during the last two seasons that he could depart, particularly given the instability Red Bull have experienced during that period.

The death of team founder and owner Dietrich Mateschitz in 2022 left a power vacuum, which played out messily and ended with Christian Horner being sacked as team principal after 20 years in the role.

Given the relationship between Horner and Verstappen's camp, or at least definitely his father Jos Verstappen, had become uneasy, the Brit's departure appeared to increase the likelihood of the Dutchman remaining with the team long-term.

However, an exodus of other figures who have played key roles in Verstappen's considerable success with the team might have had the opposite effect.

The likes of Adrian Newey, Rob Marshall and Jonathan Wheatley chose to move on, while Dr Helmut Marko, the Red Bull motorsport advisor who held an extremely close relationship with Verstappen, was pushed out at the end of 2025.

Then in April, it was confirmed that the individual Verstappen works most closely with at Red Bull, his race engineer Gianpiero Lambiase, had agreed a deal to join McLaren in 2028.

These departures might not have bothered Verstappen too much if he was still winning, but since the midway point of the 2024 season, he has not consistently been provided with a car capable of doing that.

Verstappen's camp initiated McLaren talks

It was widely reported ahead of the Austrian Grand Prix that there had been a recent meeting between Verstappen's camp and McLaren.

Sky Sports News understands that these talks were initiated by Verstappen's representatives rather than the Woking squad.

It is completely normal for teams and drivers to sound each other out, especially at this time of year, with the summer break having earned the name 'silly season' over recent years.

The interesting element about the McLaren talks was that since Verstappen's future became a talking point in 2024, they have never been seen as a realistic landing spot for him.

With the story likely to be perhaps the biggest sideshow to the thrilling July action on the track in Britain, Belgium and Hungary, we analyse what has changed to make McLaren a player in this saga.

Mercedes and Aston Martin options go away

Since uncertainty over Verstappen's Red Bull future began, the two teams he was most regularly linked with have been Mercedes and Aston Martin.

The Mercedes speculation was largely drummed up by Silver Arrows boss Toto Wolff, who spent several months in 2024 making a very public pursuit of Verstappen after Lewis Hamilton had announced his decision to join Ferrari in 2025.

Wolff's attempt to sign Verstappen for 2025 failed, but he would try again - this time in more subtle fashion - to bring the Dutchman in for 2026.

We know this because George Russell told Sky Sports F1 midway through last season that his own contract talks with the team were being delayed by Mercedes' attempts to sign Verstappen.

However, Mercedes' interest in signing Verstappen seems to have cooled, and there is one obvious reason for this: the form of world championship leader Kimi Antonelli.

The 19-year-old Italian has exceeded expectations, claiming the first five victories of his career in succession to open a considerable lead at the top of the standings.

Mercedes hoped they had got 'the next Verstappen' when they fast-tracked Antonelli in to replace Hamilton in 2025, but a highly inconsistent first campaign created some doubts.

His stunning start to this year has likely convinced Wolff that he has a superstar of his own, and one that, at least for now, is far easier to manage than Verstappen and the Dutchman's camp.

Meanwhile, Russell said in Austria that he is "100 per cent sure" he has a drive with Mercedes next year, and Wolff backed up that sentiment later in the weekend.

As for Aston Martin, they had hoped that the introduction of both new power units and chassis in 2026 would enable them to join the big time and finally compete for titles, but it has been nothing short of a disastrous start to the year for them.

They've been the slowest team on the grid, even trailing newcomers Cadillac, and are not a viable option for Verstappen at the moment.

Why would McLaren be appealing to Verstappen?

It's hard to look past McLaren's signing of Lambiase when answering this question.

Verstappen and Lambiase have forged one of the sport's most legendary driver-engineer relationships over the last decade.

While someone who doesn't follow the sport closely might hear some of the pair's radio exchanges and think they don't like each other, it's actually the opposite.

The bluntness with which they combine to get the best out of Verstappen and his machinery is a reflection of their incredibly strong relationship, and actually provides some insight to the shared personality traits that make it so strong.

While other key figures, such as Marshall and Will Courtenay, have gone from Red Bull to McLaren in recent years, having Lambiase - potentially as the Woking squad's team principal - would no doubt make it a far more appealing destination for Verstappen.

Some might question why Verstappen would consider joining another team that have struggled to get to grips with the sport's all-new regulations for 2026, with McLaren only 44 points clear of Red Bull after eight rounds.

If McLaren were pitching the Dutchman, they could point to the fact they have won each of the last two constructors' titles, and in doing that displayed an ability to successfully develop their car during a regulation cycle.

They can also point to the signing of Lambiase as evidence of their ambition to continue to improve an already strong team behind their drivers.

But would McLaren welcome Verstappen?

A key factor in McLaren not being seen as a possible destination for Verstappen has been just how happy they appeared to be with their current driver line-up of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri.

The pair showed great maturity, and loyalty to the team, by keeping things largely clean as they battled for last year's Drivers' Championship, with Norris eventually coming out on top.

However, it was easier for McLaren to dismiss the idea of chasing Verstappen when they had what was clearly the best car on the grid.

With major gains required to get back to the front, and ahead of their engine supplier Mercedes in particular, the extra edge Verstappen could bring both on track and to car development is surely appealing.

While Norris and Piastri were great team players last year, both showed weaknesses throughout the season that Verstappen very nearly took advantage of to snatch the title at the end.

There also remain paddock whispers that Piastri's camp, most notably his manager and former Red Bull driver Mark Webber, weren't delighted at how the 2025 battle played out within McLaren, with a feeling the Australian may have been let down by certain decisions.

Given Webber's strong links to Red Bull, it's believed a theoretical swap with Verstappen could also appeal to some of team Piastri.

Asked on the grid ahead of Sunday's race in Austria whether Verstappen could find a home at McLaren, the team's chief executive Zak Brown didn't completely shut down the idea.

"I would be very surprised if Lando or Oscar went elsewhere because they are very happy," Brown told Sky Sports F1.

"Of course we have got contracts, but, even besides that, contracts aside, we are very happy with them, and they are very happy here.

"If for some strange reason, someone slipped on a banana peel getting out of the tub, then of course Max is a four-time world champion."

Brown's caveat about banana peels in bathrooms, which allowed him to offer some praise and respect in Verstappen's direction, might turn out to be notable.

Three crucial races to come!

Ultimately, there is no doubt that the most decisive factor in the decision Verstappen makes over his future will be where he thinks he can have the most competitive car.

Verstappen's manager Raymond Vermeulen had said ahead of the Austrian Grand Prix weekend that the 28-year-old would like to finish his career with Red Bull, but also added that his driver "was not born to compete in the midfield".

That could be seen as a message to Red Bull, and any other Verstappen suitors, that winning is the most important thing.

It was therefore highly significant that Red Bull made a big step forward in Austria, with their upgraded car allowing Verstappen to challenge for victory for the first time this season, as he finished within two seconds of a victorious Russell.

The next challenge for Red Bull is to prove that their upgrades will work elsewhere, with the first test coming this weekend at Silverstone, before back-to-back races in Spa and Budapest ahead of the summer break.

These three events, from which every session will be shown live on Sky Sports F1, could be absolutely critical in dictating Verstappen's future.

Don't miss it!

Next up in the 2026 Formula 1 season is the big one, a Sprint weekend at Silverstone for the British Grand Prix - live on Sky Sports F1 and Sky One with coverage from Thursday to Sunday's race at 3pm. Stream Sky Sports with NOW - no contract, cancel anytime

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